Crude oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) earlier today rose to its highest point in five sessions at $101.10 a barrel, boosted by a seemingly improving US economy and record new credit in China, which raised the demand outlook for the world’s two biggest oil consumers.

China’s total social financing, the broadest measure of credit, reached 2.58 trillion yuan or $425 billion in January, the People’s Bank of China reported on Saturday. And in the United States, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index checked in at 81.2 points this month, beating market expectations for 80.6.

“There’s generally a good feel about the economy,” writes Barratt’s Bulletin chief executive Jonathan Barratt. “Oil has held onto $100, and if prices stay above here, then it should move higher.”

The US is closed for trading today, on account of the Presidents’ Day holiday.

Bullish hedge fund bets on WTI crude rose the most in more than five months, with the Keystone pipeline from Oklahoma to Gulf of Mexico coastal refineries easing a supply jam and pushing prices above $100 a barrel.

Net-long positions increased 11 percent in the week ended 11 February, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data shows. At the same time, short positions dropped 34 percent, the largest shrinkage since March 2011. Prices were also supported by continuing cold weather in the United States which exhausted distillate fuel stockpiles.

“Speculators were waiting to see what impact the opening of the Keystone pipeline would have on supplies at Cushing and now they have it,” says Again Capital LLC partner John Kilduff. “Winter heating demand has been the other factor that’s been moving the market.”

But Barclays analysts are expecting a slowing of the upward momentum in WTI in the coming weeks, “if it crosses the $101 a barrel level again, partly from the weight of softening US Gulf Coast balances”. The UK bank’s analysts add: “Refinery maintenance in the Gulf Coast is expected to peak at the start of March, and runs have already started to slow down.”

Right now, WTI is trading at $100.80 a barrel, while Brent crude is at $109.09 after earlier today reaching a 15-day peak at $109.25.

Newedge Japan commodity sales manager Ken Hasegawa doesn’t expect Brent to move much from current levels. He thinks that “the market is now looking for more economic indicators to gauge the outlook for oil demand, particularly from the United States and Europe”.

Hasegawa expects Brent to trade the range $108.50 to $110 a barrel during today and WTI to move between $99.50 and $101.20.

Natural gas

The price of natural gas earlier today hit its highest level since 5 February, at $5.45 per 1,000 cubic feet, but has since retraced slightly to be currently at $5.43.

The commodity last week gained 9.2 percent – the most since the 20 percent climb for the week ended 24 January – as unusually fierce winter storms continued to batter the US.

Weather forecasters believe relief is in sight though, with temperatures expected to lift above average in the eastern parts of the country from 19 February through 23 February.